Les agents IA dans le e-commerce deviennent réalité, Shopify est perçu comme un bénéficiaire potentiel

Les agents IA dans le e-commerce deviennent réalité, Shopify est perçu comme un bénéficiaire potentiel

Morgan Stanley believes that AI agents are changing the entry point through which consumers discover goods, but Shopify’s (SHOP) core model of monetizing transactions gives it strong immunity to changes in traffic sources. With underlying infrastructure such as product catalogs, checkout, payments, and order management, Shopify may not only defend its payment processing revenue in the AI agent era but also have the opportunity to become a key platform supporting agent-driven transactions. Morgan Stanley maintains its “Overweight” rating and $192 price target on Shopify, arguing that its strategic value may actually increase as channels fragment.

Morgan Stanley especially emphasizes that Shopify’s lack of a large-scale retail media business may instead become an advantage in the AI agent era. Unlike platforms that rely on advertising exposure and search ranking to monetize, Shopify primarily makes money from transactions. For Shopify, whether an order comes from Muse, other frontier AI models, or a merchant’s own online store does not fundamentally change its revenue model. As long as the final order is still completed through a Shopify merchant, Shopify can still earn revenue from the transaction. This “neutrality” also helps Shopify become a platform that AI agents are willing to connect to. Through a single integration, Shopify can provide AI agents with millions of merchants and their real-time inventory and pricing information. The more fragmented the channels become, the more valuable it is to be able to manage product catalogs, orders, and settlements uniformly through one platform.

Payment Revenue Security Is Stronger Than Market Concerns

Payments are one of the most fiercely debated issues in the market recently. Morgan Stanley believes there is an important misunderstanding in the market: if consumers shop through Muse and complete payment using a third-party wallet such as Stripe’s Link, it does not mean that Shopify will therefore be excluded from the transaction. Digital wallets and payment processors are choices at two different layers. Consumers or AI agents decide which wallet to use, but merchants have already decided which payment processor to use when they join Shopify. As of the second quarter of 2026, Shopify Payments covered approximately 68% of GMV (gross merchandise volume). Even if consumers use a third-party wallet, as long as the underlying payment processing is still completed by Shopify Payments, its payment processing economic benefits remain basically unchanged. However, what may truly face competition is the consumer “identity layer,” and in the future the wallet entry point within AI agents may still become a key battleground for major platforms.

AI Revenue Contribution Remains Limited, and Long-Term Questions Remain Unresolved

Morgan Stanley believes that at this stage the impact of AI agents on Shopify is at least neutral, and as adoption scales up, it may also bring incremental growth in the future. In the long term, questions that still need to be observed include whether AI agent platforms will charge “traffic fees,” whether the direct relationship between merchants and consumers will be weakened, whether long-tail products can gain more exposure, and whether brand premiums will be damaged. On valuation, Morgan Stanley acknowledges that Shopify is not cheap at present, but after considering growth factors, its valuation is basically comparable to that of large software companies, and it expects that under the base case, Shopify’s revenue will grow to $87 billion by 2035 at a 23% compound annual growth rate.

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Source: nai500.com